Monthly Archives: August 2013

The SA Reserve Bank’s record

I dusted off this piece I did a year ago on chrislbecker.com where I assessed the SARB’s performance in accordance with its own prescribed legislative mandate. The results are dismal to say the least.  I conclude, Not only has the Reserve Bank failed at each … Continue reading

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On the ebb and flow of the capital structure

In recent posts Chris and Russell have made good points about the relevance of judging Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) by empirical standards, or better put, by the standards of econometric analysis of data.* Chris and Russell have also referred … Continue reading

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RE: On The Empirical Relevance of Austrian Business Cycle Theory

My friend Grant McDermott, to whom I wrote why I think the empirical relevance of ABCT by Lester/Wolff may produce “mixed” results replied to me in this post. This is a quick one to elaborate my points. Firstly Grant says … Continue reading

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The Declining Relevance of Fractional Reserve Banks

Here is a fascinating article on Wired about the declining influence and relevance of fractional reserve commercial banks on the lives of individuals. It argues that banks will one day look more like Google, Facebook, or Apple. Interesting about this … Continue reading

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The Subsistence Fund and ABCT

I alluded in an earlier post to Eduard Braun’s explanation of Mises’ use of the concept of the “subsistence fund”, in Mises’ 1912 work The Theory of Money and Credit, to explain the workings of the business cycle and why some investment cycles are … Continue reading

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The Austrian Economist’s Skepticism on Empirics That Validate ABCT

I agree completely with this comment of Russell’s about the empirical tests that have been done in the past to ‘test’ Austrian business cycle theory: It is interesting that despite all the data shortcomings, the authors found some empirical validity to ABCT in the industrial production … Continue reading

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Impact of Real Interest Rates on Retail and Manufacturing

In a recent post I referred to data that suggests manufacturing output has been growing much slower than retail sales volumes since 2004. The data suggests that the consumer sectors are booming, while productive sectors are shrinking, which would be … Continue reading

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Technology and ABCT

Technology has a very interesting and highly complex effect on business cycles.  There is a lot that can be said about this topic but I just want to highlight a few important aspects of technology in its relation to ABCT and … Continue reading

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Further Thoughts on ABCT

Further to our posts yesterday, out of our discussion on ABCT came some thoughts on the length and shape of the production structure. While it is a feature of boom-bust cycles that during a credit-induced boom the production structure may lengthen … Continue reading

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South Africa’s Regressing Economy

I just wrote an important post at my blog about the regressing South African economy, and the risks this poses to the economy and the rand going forward. Assuming the aggregated data below from Stats SA can be trusted, the … Continue reading

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